Entertainment insiderstellThe Hollywood Reporter that major studios and production companies have issued new guidelines for employees on engaging in prediction markets, namely that they can no longer place “predictions,” or bets, about the industry.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi came crashing onto the scene during the 2024 presidential election and have since expanded beyond sports and politics into entertainment. Even actors like Timothée Chalamet have stooped as low as to cash Kalshi checks for promoting what is undeniably a gambling service. But the issue in Hollywood goes beyond placing bets on who will take home the Oscar for Best Actor (sorry again to anyone who put money on Timmy last year). Rather, we’re talking about betting on the outcomes of business decisions made behind closed studio doors—you know, insider trading!
“The warnings prohibit employees from placing bets on news events like studio earnings, casting, or even release dates. Passing information along to friends and family for them to place bets is likewise forbidden,” wrote THR. As of Thursday, Callum Turner had a 63 percent chance on Kalshi of becoming the next James Bond. So now insiders at Amazon MGM who are involved in the casting process would—hopefully—be prohibited from betting on it.
https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2118331726892060779
Makes sense! If you know the exact where
Makes sense! If you know the exact where frame Robert Downey Jr. makes his entrance in the new Avengers: Doomsday, you shouldn’t be allowed to bet on the over/under. It’s almost like we had insider trading laws long before prediction markets came along to find creative ways to get around them. This should have been a rule from the start, but I guess it’s better late than never to start cracking down. According to the outlet, at least one company is taking things a step further by setting up an anonymous hotline where employees can report coworkers they suspect of placing bets. Employees of entertainment outlets THR, Variety, and Deadline have also been prohibited from placing bets on “award nominations, casting decisions, production timelines and release dates.”
But will the new guidelines actually stop the corruption? According to THR,ped shows in front of a live audience create an inherent stream of insider knowledge that people could potentially bet on. So perhaps this problem is far from being solved
Well, it only took a couple of years for Hollywood to start cracking down on inside bets in the entertainment industry. Now do the government next! Because maybe, just maybe, it should be illegal to bet on whether the US is going to strike Iran.
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