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KEY POINTS
- A new caravan of approximately 1,500 migrants departed southern Mexico on Tuesday, with some participants citing renewed hopes of entering the United States following Democrats’ midterm election victories.
- President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to double tariffs on Mexican goods unless the country stops the migrant caravans from approaching the U.S. border.
- Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back against Trump’s threats, saying the caravans are already dispersing and promising humanitarian treatment for the migrants.
After months of historically low migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, a new caravan of approximately 1,500 migrants is making its way north through southern Mexico, beginning a journey they hope will eventually take them to the United States.
The group, which departed Tapachula on Tuesday, includes families from Central America who have been stranded in Mexico amid tightened U.S. immigration restrictions.
“Our destination is the United States,” Cesar Sandoval, a 47-year-old Nicaraguan migrant, told AFP. Sandoval said he hopes that recent Democratic victories in the midterm elections will give him “another chance” to enter the country.
The movement has prompted a new confrontation between Washington and Mexico City. President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to double tariffs on Mexican imports if the caravans are not stopped, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum disputed his characterization of the situation, saying recent caravans have largely dispersed and none have reached the U.S. border since he took office.
The march north
The “Dios con Nosotros” (“God With Us”) caravan is estimated at 1,500 people and is the newest of several Central American caravans this fall.
The group left San Pedro Sula, Honduras, on Nov. 3, which was Election Day in the United States. Many migrants cited poverty and violence back home as the underlying reasons for leaving, while also pointing to the political shift in the U.S. as their motivation for making the journey now.
“Trump is on his way out in these elections. That’s why we’re taking the risk,” Jimena Morazan told AFP. “Here in Honduras, we have nothing left.”
Beverly Medina, a 39-year-old traveling with her 3-year-old daughter, expressed similar feelings.
“While they’re going through the election process, we’ll be on our way,” Medina told AFP. “We have faith that we’ll arrive while they’re busy with that.”
Dios Con Nosotros reached Tapachula, Mexico, on Sunday, and was joined primarily by Guatemalans and Salvadorans at the Guatemala-Mexico border. By the time the caravan left Tapachula on Tuesday, it had grown to more than 1,500 people, including many families.
The caravan’s first goal is Mexico City, which lies more than 600 miles away from Tapachula. Upon arriving, the group intends to ask for help and protection from the Mexican government before continuing to the U.S. border
The U.S. Embassy in Tegucigalpa warned migrants against attempting the dangerous crossing, posting online about the rumors and risks associated with the journey.
“Human traffickers are lying to you. Caravan organizers are lying to you,” the embassy posted. “No matter how you try, the border is closed. You will be detained, deported, and prosecuted. Don’t risk your future.”
https://x.com/hashtag/NiLoIntentes
A warning from Washington
As the caravans make their way north, their movement caught Trump’s attention, who issued a warning to Mexico in a Thursday post on Truth Social.
“Huge CARAVANS are forming and beginning their illegal march through Mexico,” Trump posted. “MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED … There will be no leniency.”
The president’s threat lands while the U.S. and Mexico are negotiating after Trump declined to extend USMCA, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. It also comes after the State Department imposed visa restrictions on more than 15 unnamed people who were allegedly involved in “organizing, facilitating, or promoting” migrant caravans in October.
“Crossing the U.S. southern border without authorization violates the law,” the State Department said in an official press release. “Those individuals involved in facilitating or participating in such illegal activity will be considered for visa restrictions.”
The department warned that caravan members who apply for visas will face “additional scrutiny” in the coming weeks, which could mean refused or revoked visas.
The U.S. Embassy in Nicaragua also released an official statement in October, emphasizing the national security and immigration laws of the United States and claiming that recent investigations show there are individuals who have “recruited, coordinated, and directed” groups of migrants traveling toward the U.S. border. Further information and the names of the individuals has not yet been released.
Mexico pushes back
Trump’s threat tied migration to the ongoing trade talks. Mexico’s economy depends heavily on access to the U.S. market, so a doubled tariff would be a serious blow.
Sheinbaum responded to Trump by saying that his threats are unnecessary because Mexico’s approach is already working.
“A caravan that is in Arriaga, Chiapas, which had formed with about 500 or 600 people, now has less than 100 people left,” Sheinbaum said in a press conference Thursday. “We are informing the people in the caravan that it is very difficult to cross into the United States … they will not be able to do so because that possibility does not exist.”
Sheinbaum referred to the larger caravan that began in Honduras as well, saying that the group will be treated with humanitarian aid and “treatment based on human rights,” including the option to stay in Mexico.
“If someone wants to stay in Mexico under certain conditions, in a specific place, they can do so,” Sheinbaum said. “But the vast majority return to their countries of origin once they learn that they will not be able to cross the Mexican border into the United States.”
